Just a few random snapshots and video clips from our weekend with friends down south in Sweden. Thomas rented a house for a few weeks so he could visit his friends and family and also have his own place/space for chilling out with friends. Perfect!
Videos (just playing with my new waterproof toy – left the DSLR at home):
Pics:
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This is a mixed set, including pictures from the island Ven (Wikipedia), as well as the mainland (the aerial picture is of the mainland). The second half of the set includes pics from around here (Gothenburg). And here’s a video I made with this waterproof video camera.
(click to order a print from SmugMug.com)
View from our balcony (Kallebäck neighborhood of Gothenburg, Sweden).
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I’ve been a Soros fan ever since reading “The Alchemy of Finance” in the early ’90s and an even bigger fan since seeing him speak at the “Secretary’s Open Forum” at the U.S. Department of State in 2003. The following is a clear, concise, and up-to-date explanation of his main theories and their implications for financial markets and their participants and regulators.
This Is “Act 2″ of the Crisis
George Soros
2010-6-14
In the week following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15, 2008 — global financial markets actually broke down, and by the end of the week, they had to be put on artificial life support. The life support consisted of substituting sovereign credit for the credit of financial institutions, which ceased to be acceptable to counterparties.
As Mervyn King of the Bank of England brilliantly explained, the authorities had to do in the short term the exact opposite of what was needed in the long term: they had to pump in a lot of credit to make up for the credit that disappeared, and thereby reinforce the excess credit and leverage that had caused the crisis in the first place. Only in the longer term, when the crisis had subsided, could they drain the credit and re-establish macroeconomic balance.
This required a delicate two-phase maneuver just as when a car is skidding. First you have to turn the car into the direction of the skid and only when you have regained control can you correct course.
The first phase of the maneuver has been successfully accomplished — a collapse has been averted. In retrospect, the temporary breakdown of the financial system seems like a bad dream. There are people in the financial institutions that survived who would like nothing better than to forget it and carry on with business as usual. This was evident in their massive lobbying effort to protect their interests in the Financial Reform Act that just came out of Congress. But the collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over.
Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama, when financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt. Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide.
As some of you know, Nouriel Roubini and David Einhorn are, IMHO, two of the best minds in their fields and I’ve been posting some of their stuff on here since at least 2006 (list of posts here). Here are their latest articles:
Why an ’80s themed birthday party? Because Lena and Magnus both turned 40 and 40+40=80. Good times!
We had a great week visiting my mother, who consults for the UN. We got to see some of Susanne’s friends, go to the Opera, tour the UN, go to a reception, and eat some great food, hear some great music, and more.
This morning’s diversion (the creation of this video) started with me pondering the question: “Might Eyjafjallajokull’s ash cloud jeopardize the warm weather we’re starving for after a long winter in Europe?”
Based on this article, it sounds like the current plume isn’t big enough to have much of a global impact. That’s the good news. The bad news is that northern Europe will likely suffer some ill effects, even if the volcano is done erupting (last time the eruptions went on for over a year).
2010-5-5 Update: Bido ran out of runway and put itself on the auction block today (details here).
Since discovering and testing Bido over the past few months, I’ve decided that it’s the best way to quickly and easily trim down my domain name portfolio, especially sub-$500 domain names (that’s because Bido has no minimum commission, whereas Sedo has a $50 minimum).
While Bido is still young, with it’s share of little bugs, it’s developers are rapidly iterating and improving the site, which is one reason why it’s growing so fast, taking market share from the larger players, such as Sedo. They’re also friendly and helpful and will respond rapidly and personally should you have any questions, comments, etc.
That’s basically it (there are more advanced features to explore later). To reward the community for participating in the selection process, Bido has created an innovative system that works like this: Every time an item you voted for sells, you get a percentage of the sale price. The earliest voters earn the most, and you can earn up to 0.77% of the sale price.
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Just messing around on this beautiful, snowy day here in Sweden. The weather, music, and mood all came together. Plus a new tripod (thanks, Hugo).
Click that first picture or here to see the snow falling outside our window. I’m glad I decided to stop to smell the flowers (thanks, Cici), and to watch, listen, and feel the snow and wind, and to hear, for the first time, a new rendition of an all-time favorite song. That’s what sealed the deal, the Floyd cover (thanks, Christy).
More pics after the jump. The first one (below) is from Monday (2/22), the second one is from Thursday (2/25) and the third one is from Tuesday (2/23). The tulip pics and video (above) are from Saturday (2/20). The video cover shot is from Sunday (2/21).
Things might be pretty quite around here for a while (at least). Why, because I’m super busy with various projects and using Facebook, Twitter, and FriendFeed more than this blog .
I’ve also started experimenting with Blogger.com, which I like better than WordPress.com for hosted blogs. Here’s the first real post on Bootstrappy: “Bootstrap or Die: Lessons Learned From a Web Startup’s Murder/Suicide” (that’s the post that the chart above belongs to).
Cheers!
(click to view the animated google map / photo slideshow)
Here’s how to geotag your pics and make an animated map of your own:
That’s it. Use the documentation that came with your GPS, Google, and trial-and-error to perfect your workflow. Cheers!
It’s been like watching a slow motion train wreak build momentum these past eight years. And now we’re past the event horizon. Click the graphic and read the article for details. Also see Krugman’s 2009-11-22 article: “The Phantom Menace” and this time-lapse map showing the unemployment rate from January 2007 to September 2009.
PAYBACK TIME
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
By Edmund L. Andrews
2009-11-23
NY Times
WASHINGTON — The United States government is financing its more than trillion-dollar-a-year borrowing with i.o.u.’s on terms that seem too good to be true. But that happy situation, aided by ultralow interest rates, may not last much longer. Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed.
I consider this a must read article. It’s basically analogous to Roubini’s February 2008 article “The Twelve Steps to Financial Disaster,” which I posted back then (you can download the PDF from the first link here).
Excerpt: So the combined effect of the Fed policy of a zero Fed funds rate, quantitative easing and massive purchase of long-term debt instruments is seemingly making the world safe – for now – for the mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged global asset bubbles.
“Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust”
By Nouriel Roubini
2009-11-1
Financial Times (original)
Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets – equities, oil, energy and commodity prices – a narrowing of high-yield and high-grade credit spreads, and an even bigger rally in emerging market asset classes (their stocks, bonds and currencies). At the same time, the dollar has weakened sharply , while government bond yields have gently increased but stayed low and stable.
2009-10-29 UPDATE: Updated NASDAQ chart and comments.
Just time quick post. The annotations on the chart are self explanatory. Coming after a 7-month, 73% rally, they represent a yellow flag (caution). See also this weekly chart I posted last month, when we were at this same level, the one I posted yesterday, and the one shown below:
(click for larger version of this image)
1a) The image above (except for my comments) came from Mary Meeker’s “Economy + Internet Trends” report (PDF). It’s is pretty much the same stuff her and her interns have been pumping out since the ’90s. Check it out for a regurgitation and updating of conventional “wisdom.”
1b) Comparing Rallies: 2009 vs. 1974-75 vs. 1938-39: Click to view.
2) Now on to the fun stuff: Chuck Norris on the downturn (finance humor):
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