Web 2.0 Expo Next Week, First Doing Market Update
Susanne and I just got back from a great 4-day trip to Berlin for the Web 2.0 Expo. Met a lot of interesting people and startups there and will report on it next week. First, however, a quick market update.
The reprieve rally I blogged about here is over, with new lows being set Thursday. See the 18 comments I added to that blog post for a number of interesting articles. Also see Nouriel Roubini’s video from yesterday in London: “It’s going to be a financial and economic wreak.”
Regarding Nouriel Roubini, Since 2006, I have published a number of his articles (see here for a list of them). Since 2004, I’ve also published lots of other articles, as well as my own thoughts, comments, and analysis. In 2004, based on my credit and asset bubble views, I began selling off all my real estate (one apartment and three lots). As of a couple of weeks ago, I am 100% out of real estate (except for the apartment we live in here in Sweden). My stock trading account has been mostly in cash for the entire bear market, with occasional very short-term ventures long and short. The net result has been up a couple of percent for the past twelve months. However, now I am whipsawed down a couple of percent by some ATM (“at the money”) MSFT puts and some 32% OTM (“out of the money”) EEM puts. I’m kind of stuck with those positions due to the volatility spike, which is why I partially hedged them yesterday (not quite to delta neutral). The net effect of these positions is likely to have me sidelined or mostly sidelined until the puts expire or option volatility drops back down. Maybe a good thing, maybe not. Time will tell!
This afternoon (morning New York time), futures market are limit down, with the global panic accelerating into something that may come to a spectacular finale. Right now buyers have stepped aside and sellers are rushing for U.S. dollars and t-bills.