Month: March 2004

Briefing.com’s reaffirms that it’s on the bandwagon

From a briefing.com article making the case that there is no bubble, which itself is actually a sign that you might be in a bubble: “The P/E for the S&P 500 Index is above historic norms, but not greatly so considering the strong earnings momentum and historically low interest rates.”

As much as a surprise as this might be to some people, the historically low interest rates are most likely going to change soon, and possibly significantly. Of course, there is that massive short position in the bond market, which is begging to get squeezed if the right catalyst develops, but that’s another story. For the past 10 years the game for many corporations and consumers has been to…

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Barron’s: An Example of Some Sloppy Journalism (at best)

I admit, I flip through Barron’s Online each weekend, printing out and at least skimming many articles, although it’s often just to see what the herd is thinking (also hoping to find a little witty word play in Alan Ableson’s column). Anyway, in this week’s “The Striking Price” column, Kopin Tan talks about market anxiety and its effect on implied volatility in options…

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Countdown to the Employment Report…

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It’ll be interesting to see if this week *finally* brings the big headline number that everyone and their dog has been calling for for at least the past few months. Of course that big day has long since been discounted into the market, and in fact we’re already on to discounting things like…

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On honesty

It’s a rare person who wants to hear what he doesn’t want to hear.
-Dick Cavett, talk show host

Impressive percentage move, but…

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Where was the volume… The Naz didn’t even break 2 billion shares, the NY not even 1.5 billion shares??? On a 3% gap upside day off of a 3-day island, where lows were tested and held repeatedly??? Humm. And that mean old 20-day EMA is threatening… I dunno, smells too fishy for my likings. Kind of has that short-covering odor about it. You know, that unmistakable aroma that comes from a trader who just shorted a stock, only to see it gap up the next day, and proceed to rally all f-ing day long, never letting him realize his dream of covering “as soon as the market pulls back a little.” Yikes! Been there, done that! It’s a lesson we all have to learn, whether it be the hard way (with your own money) or the easy way (watching someone else get blown up). It’s that lesson that can send you home to mommy mutual fund or make you stronger. C’est la vie. Time for happy hour!

Soros on the U.S. economy…

The balance between the United States’ high consumer spending and its growing budget deficit is unsustainable, even in the short term, billionaire fund manager George Soros said on Wednesday. “We spend 5 percent more than we earn and we have a budget deficit of 5 percent, so I don’t think it’s terribly sound,” Soros told a meeting of students in the Irish capital. “I don’t think it can be maintained in the longer term. I don’t think it can be maintained actually even in the shorter term.”
-Reuters

On goals

Don’t let other people tell you what you want.
-Pat Riley, former pro basketball coach

Time to crank up the fear factor…

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This is a 2-day 15-minute chart with a 50-bar EMA and an OBV indicator.

Oops… gap up on the open… set the day’s high before 10:00… cross the flat line a few times and give back 100% of the unimpressive 3-hour rally in the last 30 minutes… humm… not what the bulls want to see. About the only positive is the fact that yesterday’s low served as support and OBV (or use RSI, if you prefer) made a higher low (divergence). Problem is that late-day selling… Think some people are gonna have to get scared here… nothing like a cleansing capitulation to refresh!

People are starting to notice…

That a risk premium has been factoring into the market since January 26th…. gulp. Well, that’s what happens after a year-long rally that pretty removed the “oh shit, another Iraq war” risk premium. And it just so happens that Jan. 26th was the day word got out that the Fed changed it’s policy stance and the smart money began distributing shares into the rush of mutual fund money… because it’s time to begin discounting a rise in interest rates and inflation. Naz getting some support at its 200-day moving average, but it’s still a good time to have some dry powder!

So this is my new home???

My brand spanking new blog… feels kinda like when you move into a new apartment or house and your friends just left after helping you move all day… and you look around at the empty walls and rooms full of boxes… and then you stay up all night unpacking and hanging shit on the walls and playing all the cool CDs and tapes that you haven’t listened to in years and your new pad starts taking shape! Very cool!