Month: January 2005

That, My Friend, Is a Downtrend


Lower high and a lower lows…  That’s the definition of a downtrend and that is what you see above.  If we don’t soon recover and get back above that 50-day moving average we could see some carnage.  Of course after this Thursday’s presidential inauguration is over, assuming no "event," then we could well get that recovery.  And if there is no event and there is no recovery, then the thing will probably drop like a stone.  Tune in next Friday, January 21, 2005 to see.

On Persistence

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.  Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men and women of talent.  Genius will not…the world is full of educated derelicts.

-Calvin Coolidge

On Effort

Remember, a dead fish can float downstream, but it takes a live one to swim upstream.

-W.C. Fields

Party Time?

Bday_1605_gifI came across this one the other day after it reported earnings up 1000% on a 43% sales gain…  yes, those are numbers we like to see…  along with increasing margins and whatnot.  The company is called Celebrate Express (Nasdaq: BDAY) and this chart shows its entire trading history and a short base that resembles a cup with handle pattern.


Fallen and Can’t Get Up?

Qqqq_1605Too early to tell for sure, since we have overtones of new year’s profit taking overlapping the other forces that are currently in play, but Monday’s reversal and engulfing candle on volume combined with a fall below the 50-day moving average and subsequent failure to — yet — rally back above it is as textbook a warning signal as you’re ever gonna get.  Couple that with the items outlined in my 1/2/05 Technical Update and it’s good to have some cash on the sidelines until this thing plays out.  Cheers!

On Kindness

A single act of kindness throws out roots in all directions, and the roots spring up to make new trees.  The greatest work that kindness does to others is that it helps them be kinder themselves.

-Amelia Earhart

On Goals

You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.

-Arthur Ashe

Technical Update


This is not a pretty picture.  After setting a new high in early December the Cubes (Nasdaq: QQQQ) tested that high, and indeed set a marginal new high, in mid December.  Problem is the thrust was weak, with light volume and declining momentum.  To see this, compare the horizontal line on the stock chart to the downward sloping lines over the volume bars and the RSI graph.  Classic divergence.