Month: May 2005

The Blowoff

Existing homes were sold in April at the fastest pace in history (seasonally adjusted rate of 7.18 million units).  At the same time the median price rose 15.1% year-over-year, the largest 12-month price gain since 1980.  Just more evidence that we are now comfortably in the blowoff stages of the housing boom, with even Alan Greenspan finally talking about froth and bubbles.

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Magazine Cover Indicator

Fortune_cover_505 Exhibit One, this week’s Fortune magazine cover. The magazine covers of Business Week, Time, Fortune, Newsweek, and others have a long history of being contrary indicators of everything from stock market tops and bottoms, stock tops and bottoms, currency tops and bottoms, athlete tops, CEO tops, scandal bottoms, etc.  I leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.  Cheers!

RSAS Update

Rsas_52005 Just a progress check since my May 10th posting….  Up about 18% on rising volume since then, though Thursday and Friday the momentum cooled and Friday we printed the tight red candle.  Both developments and the ideas in today’s QQQQ posting suggest we could get a retracement this week.  We’ll see.  Cheers!

Pause Soon?

Qqqq_52005Except for the volume, things have come along pretty nicely since my May 2nd posting (Day One Rally Attempt).  Going into Memorial Day weekend I wouldn’t be surprised if we took a breather: (1) we’re had a big 3-week rally, (2) daily technical indicators have gone from oversold to overbought, and (3) it’s not uncommon for people to reduce risk and raise or hold cash going into long weekend, especially post 9/11.

On Leadership

True leadership is for the benefit of the followers, not the enrichment of the leaders.

-Robert Townsend

(I wonder if W. and his buddies ever considered this)

Fox Hunt

Foxh_52005

FoxHollow Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: FOXH) came public at $14 per share seven months ago and doubled in less than a month.  It then based for a couple of months, before breaking out again and running up to about $36.50 and falling into a 13-week base-on-base pattern, the most recent three months of which is shown above.  Note the super tight and quiet handle from the end of April through this week’s breakout on the highest volume since its IPO.  The volume surge was probably a combination of short covering (1.6 million or 15.4% of the float is sold short) and institutional buying.  No doubt the stock appears rich, trading with an enterprise value of $765 million vs. TTM revenue of $55 million, but bear in mind that a $765 million EV is nothing in the world of medical products companies.  And FoxHollow is in a massive growth mode, with year-over-year revenue growth of 350% and gross margin at 59% and rising.  That’s about all the time I have today, folks, but before I go I’ll toss you the following company profile from Yahoo Finance and a link to the company’s website so you can poke around for yourself.  Cheers!

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Where’s the Beef?

Qqqq_51605Just a quick post to note the push to a new high for the almost 3-week old rally…  but on very low volume.  Are the summer doldrums here early?  At some point this options-expiration week I’d expect to see some volume come in one way or another.  Stay tuned.  Cheers!