Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX): Just a quick update on Wednesday’s chart, which shows a $1.77 (6%) gain on double average volume. This appears to qualify as a breakout of the 3-4 day consolidation period. That being said, this breakout will confirm or fail based on the earnings news and conference call that comes out after today’s close. You can see some…
…hesitation in the daily candle’s upper shadow.
My personal best guess, which is worth absolutely nothing in the market, is that at least a small upside surprise is already baked into CROX, but not a HUGE one. I am expecting a large upside surprise, as detailed in my Investment Thesis post.
In addition to the amount any earnings surprise, the stock’s reaction will depend on the conference call and if any red flags get thrown up there, such as major supply, demand or distribution problems, more competition than expected, out of whack income statement or balance sheet items (poor margins or inventory problems), or any other warning signs. It will also depend somewhat on today’s monthly retail sales report and the general state of the market, which has shown some warning signs as detailed in my most recent Cubes Update posting. Still, you know that my bet is on the long side. We will see. Cheers!
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