The Bear’s Lair, an interesting article by Martin Hutchinson:
The coming China crash
December 3, 2007
While the Chinese stock market, as measured by the China Securities Index 300, is down 18% since October 16, which follows a period of almost two years during which the CSI 300 had soared 535% since January 1, 2006. Chinese economic growth is currently running at over 11% and the big money is convinced that it will continue, while the country’s foreign exchange reserves are $1.4 trillion, the largest in the world.
A crash would appear to be imminent!
Bears on China have been common for the last decade, and their track record has not been good. To take just one unfair example, Henry Blodget, the former Internet genius, wrote in Slate in April 2005 “You’ve probably been daydreaming about the fortune to be made in Chinese stocks. Well, keep dreaming….you’ll eventually conclude that you could have done better selling insurance in Toledo.” That was about six months before the Chinese market took off, and if anybody has made 500% on their investment by selling insurance in Toledo during that period, I haven’t met him.