Intrade.com is a real-time, 23-hour per day trading platform and prediction market, whereby real people bet real money on the outcome of real future events. Everything from the weather and financial to legal and politics (and more).
So, on the eve of “Super Tuesday,” we figured we’d take a look see at political leader board. What we find is summarized below:
The odds of John McCain receiving the Republican presidential nomination are on the uptick, at 87.9%.
On the Democrat side, we see Hillary ticking down to 53% and Obama ticking up to 48.5%.
The other most active contact is the “U.S. Economy in Recession in 2008” ticking up to 69.3%.
I looked into opening an account myself, but was turned off by the $25 minimum commission plus an additional fee if you hold contracts at expiration. That is why trading volume is so low and bid/ask spreads so high.
Poke around yourself some on the site and you will find all kinds of interesting contacts, such as the following:
Republican Vice Presidential Nominee:
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 35/35.5/35/242: Field (any other candidate).
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 22.6/27/24.0/4036: Mike Huckabee.
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 17.5/19.8/19.4/559: Tim Pawlenty.
Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee:
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 20.2/22/20.2/11,409: Barak Obama.
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 22.6/27/24.0/4036: Field.
- Bid/Ask/Last/Vol: 0.5/11.1/11/62,985: Al Gore.
- Evan Bayh and Wesley Clark are pretty much tied with Gore.
Other Interesting Contracts:
- Etrade Bankruptcy
- Osama Bin Laden Capture or Kill
- Acadamy Awards
- International Politics
- Snowfall in New York City