First update since this post on November 9, 2007. That post exactly marked GOOG’s reversal off it’s all-time high, after the 3-month relief-rally off the August lows. Today’s chart shows the end of that 40% bloodbath. Same as back in November, Google stock is the bellwether. It tells you pretty much all you need to know.
The other things to watch remain commodities, the Chinese market (and the other BRICS), and the dollar, which I’ve been bearish on since (before) this post on April 6, 2004. Back then one Euro cost $1.22, now it costs $1.59 (30% more).
I actually think the dollar will probably catch a bounce once the Fed makes its final interest rate cut of this cycle. That’ll probably also mark the top of the massive commodity and commodity stock run, as money rotates (see this). We will see. Those are just probabilities and scenarios to watch for. As always, the technicals must confirm and the market is always right (or at least it doesn’t pay to argue with it!).