The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Just quick post to note the failure of the rally attempt that started intraday yesterday.  See yesterday’s blog and last week’s “Bailout “Hope Rally” = Eye of the Storm.”

Volume declined, too, which indicates that some people are still holding on (the masochists!).  A sustainable rally attempt is not likely until the pain becomes too great and they give up.  That will show up in both the price and volume.  Government action or other “big news” could also spark something (“October surprise,” anyone?!).

Regarding my personal trades (see yesterday’s blog): Within five minutes of today’s open, I closed out all of the positions I put on yesterday (GOOG and QQQQ), as the lack of a big up open was “the dog that didn’t bark.”  Those are often gives the best signals, certainly some of my favorites, because they are subtle, in fact invisible to most people, who don’t know that a dog should be barking but isn’t.

Overall, I’ve been out (i.e. not long) since this blog post in the beginning of August, when the July mini-rally was showing fatigue (and I was going on vacation to Gotland).  Only very quick hits ventures to the long side in a bear market.  Of course, it is generally best to be sidelines or short bear-market rally failures.

PS: Here are today’s market summary stats from Yahoo Finance.

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