Just a quick post to note the end of the rally attempt (its start was noted here: Market Update: Good News/Bad News).
Also of note is today’s National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) “news”: “The economy’s yearlong downturn, officially declared a recession.” I put “news” in quotes because their “economic indicator” (or whatever you prefer to call it) is backward looking, just like all non-market based economic indicators are. Here is an LA Times article and here is the official NBER release. Here is a blog I published over a year ago (in November 2007) saying the U.S. was likely already in a recession and why (includes annotated chart).
The only forward looking indicators, of course, are market-based ones, such as the stock markets and bond markets themselves, which discount things around 6-12 months in advance, which means (as always), that the bear market low will occur 6-12 months before the recession ends.