As some of you know, Nouriel Roubini and David Einhorn are, IMHO, two of the best minds in their fields and I’ve been posting some of their stuff on here since at least 2006 (list of posts here). Here are their latest articles:
It’s been like watching a slow motion train wreak build momentum these past eight years. And now we’re past the event horizon. Click the graphic and read the article for details. Also see Krugman’s 2009-11-22 article: “The Phantom Menace” and this time-lapse map showing the unemployment rate from January 2007 to September 2009.
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
By Edmund L. Andrews
WASHINGTON — The United States government is financing its more than trillion-dollar-a-year borrowing with i.o.u.’s on terms that seem too good to be true. But that happy situation, aided by ultralow interest rates, may not last much longer. Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed.
Just time for a quickie:
UPDATE: Two additional articles:
Just a quick update on last week’s post noting the high and tight downward-sloping handle (in indexes and stocks).
Today (December 16th), we got the upside breakout/follow-through, and it came on increased volume, but the volume was below average, which is a question mark, perhaps the kind of question mark that leaves some doubt/worry, which is what can sustain rallies.
The news of the day was the U.S. Fed cutting continuing to push on it’s little string, cutting its Fed Funds target rate to a record low 0% to 0.25% (Washington Post article and LA Times article). Now that it’s out of bullets there…
This chart (taken intraday today), shows some very tight, low-volume action above a moving average that has not held for a long time. This comes after the gap up of a few days ago, which is also still holding.
We really could break either way here, but this action, combined with multiple other signs of decreased fear and flight-to-quality (risk assets and gold are up, spreads are down) and ability to hold on “bad news” (Jobless claims jump to 573,000, a 26-year high), is interesting. The Fed is printing massive amounts of money. It’s going to go somewhere (eventually). Cheers!
Do they exist? Where? I’m especially curious about closed-end funds that invest in senior-secured loans. I did a little research and found these “senior” funds, but don’t know much about them:
Susanne and I just got back from a great 4-day trip to Berlin for the Web 2.0 Expo. Met a lot of interesting people and startups there and will report on it next week. First, however, a quick market update.
The reprieve rally I blogged about here is over, with new lows being set Thursday. See the 18 comments I added to that blog post for a number of interesting articles. Also see Nouriel Roubini’s video from yesterday in London: “It’s going to be a financial and economic wreak.”