Month: July 2005

Miva Trying to Bottom

Miva_71805 Miva Inc. (Nasdaq: MIVA) is trying to form the right side of a bottoming base.  Today the stock popped 16% on 2x normal volume.  This ecommerce and web advertising company is a turnaround story, after restructuring and renaming itself in the past year.  Clearly we’re getting some accumulation here.  I have a small position at about $5.00 per share.  Cheers!

Internet Security Systems Base

Issx_71805 Internet Security Systems, Inc.  (Nasdaq: ISSX) is working on the right side of an 8-month base.  You can’t see it on this weekly chart, but yesterday the stock gapped up 6.5% on a 1.5x of average volume.  Headlines report analyst upgrade.  Of course you know I care more about what people DO than what they SAY, but somebody did a good bit of doing yesterday.  We’ll watch to see how this base rounds out, as internet security is primed to receive more attention in coming years.

Google: Quiet, Tight Trading

Goog_71805 Past 3-4 weeks has seen Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) trading in a tight pattern on quiet volume.  Past few days even look like a handle type of formation.  It’ll be interesting to see if the earnings report (another blowout quarter?) triggers a big move in GOOG, and possibly techs overall.  Cheers!

Home Builders: Technicals, Earnings, Analysts

At least eight home builders had intraday reversals yesterday, most on volume.  See charts on PHM, BZH, MTH, RYL, SPF, TOL, HOV, and CTX.

Earnings reports are starting to come out and the home builders are expected to post another quarter of estimate-beating numbers.  Some analysts are already upgrading (Merrill Lynch, for example).

It will be very telling to see the reaction to the earnings releases, guidance, and conference calls…  Could easily generate a big move up or down.


KBH Follow Up #2

Kbh_71105c Here we see why — rally going into options expiration — I took my short capital off the table as per KBH Follow Up #1 (7/2/05).  However KBH may be setting up for a new short trade, as it bounced to retest the June highs, but volume was unimpressive and there’s a possible divergence with some of the momentum indicators (RSI shown).  If we get a trigger, such as an intraday reversal on volume, it may be a place to enter another short trade.  Or we could get a big short squeeze that could produce upside gaps and $10+ points up.  Upside gaps in at least some of the home builders could be more likely, as Monday saw a huge number of stocks across the market gap up, possibly launching a summer rally.  At least 11 home builders hit new all-time highs, including some that gapped out of bases on pretty good volume (bullish: WLS up 14% on good volume; bearish: DHI gap up then intraday reversal).  I would expect any rally to be the last hurrah.  Cheers!

Insider Selling at the Home Builders

From this week’s Barron’s:

INSIDERS SOLD SEVERAL hundred thousand shares of a big residential homebuilder last month, as the company’s stock has been trading near all-time highs. 

In June two insiders at Hovnanian Enterprises sold more than 400,000 shares altogether, worth approximately $26 million, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 


Critical Juncture


Here we see the month-long decline reaching a critical juncture.  After breaching its 50-day EMA on big volume (6/24 and 6/25) the Cubes appear to have suffered a rally failure (or at least a nervous pause before a holiday weekend).  True, some of that big volume on the breach two weeks ago was options related since we had a quad-witching expiration then, but assuming no FOJ "event," we should get a rally attempt Tuesday morning.  If we don’t or if it fails intraday I’ll be looking to short it.  So there you have, believe it if you need it, if you don’t just pass it on.

KBH Follow Up #1


Here we see that KB Homes (NYSE: KBH) sold off for five days in a row following my June 18th post.  We also see a weak, low-volume, two-day rally attempt that started on Monday and appears to have fizzled, or at least paused, going into the July 4th weekend.  It did get some juice from news that KB’s selling its mortgage unit, and it also got some support Friday afternoon.  But, Thursday saw a reversal off of KBH’s intraday high (see the tallish upper shadow) on increased volume.  Friday say some weakness turned into intraday strength, when an intraday breach of the 10-day EMA sparked some buying or short covering, providing a rally into the close.


On Honesty

The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don’t have it.

-George Bernard Shaw, playwright

On Value

Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything than counts can be counted.