Month: May 2006

Article: A Test of Our Character

From the May 26th NYT.

A Test of Our Character

In his new movie, “An Inconvenient Truth,” Al Gore suggests that there are three reasons it’s hard to get action on global warming. The first is boiled-frog syndrome: because the effects of greenhouse gases build up gradually, at any given moment it’s easier to do nothing. The second is the perception, nurtured by a careful disinformation campaign, that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about whether man-made global warming is a serious problem. The third is the belief, again fostered by disinformation, that trying to curb global warming would have devastating economic effects.

I’d add a fourth reason, which I’ll talk about in a minute. But first, let’s notice that Mr. Gore couldn’t have asked for a better illustration of disinformation campaigns than the reaction of energy-industry lobbyists and right-wing media organizations to his film.


CROX Update – Bearish Engulfing Candle

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX): Just a quick update on the reaction to Thursday night’s news of raised guidance and a coming secondary offering. Friday’s reaction was a bearish engulfing candle, with CROX gapping up 8.7% at the open and then proceeding to decline by 14.4% to close at $24.18 on 2.6x average volume, as the market positions itself to relive the selling shareholders of their stock at the most advantageous price (to the market). As stated in Thursday’s posting…


File This Under: Too Little Too Late, Asshole

From the front page of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. President George W. Bush, in a joint media conference, said the war in Iraq did not go as smoothly as they had hoped. The two leaders admitted they had made mistakes, but deflected questions about possible troop withdrawals.

So it turns out all those “experts” and “facts” and “unpatriotic people who would dare question the president’s motives and decisions” were right, invading Iraq at all, and especially for made up reasons, was a bad idea. And now that Bush and Blair have brought a possibly irreversible shit storm down on the world, they’re going to come back and sheepishly say they made a mistake? Man! Let’s just get on with it and get these arrogant, closed-minded, destroyers out of office and get some people in there who can start repairing the damage they’ve caused. It’s going to be a long and difficult job, but the sooner we start the sooner the bleeding stops and the sooner we can reverse Bush’s vicious cycle of war and turn it into a virtuous cycle of peace. Cheers!

CROX News — Secondary Offering & Raising Guidance

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX):
From the Company’s press release:

Based on strong demand from consumers, which has resulted in faster than anticipated re-orders from our customers both in the U.S. and overseas, the Company now expects sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2006 to be between $62 million and $65 million compared to its previous guidance of $53 million to $55 million. The Company also stated that it now anticipates net income per diluted common share to range from $0.23 to $0.25, versus its previous expectation of net income per diluted common share of $0.21 to $0.22.



Day 1 of Rally Attempt — Record ETF Volume

The Cubes (NASDAQ: QQQQ): 6:50 AM NYC time: Just a quick post to note day one of a rally attempt, the second one since the global decline started making headlines. The rally attempt comes well below the 200-day EMA for the Cubes, but above the 200-day for the Diamonds (AMEX: DIA), and right on the 200-day EMA for the Spiders (AMEX: SPY), Mid-Cap Spiders (AMEX: MDY) and iShares Russell 2000 Index (AMEX: IWM). See charts, below.


United States Redneck Special Forces

A friend emailed this to me:

Special Bulletin from the Pentagon:

The Pentagon announced today the formation of a new 500-man elite fighting unit called the United States Redneck Special Forces. Before parachuting into Iraq, these boys were given only the following facts about terrorists:

1. The season opened today.
2. There is no limit.
3. They taste just like chicken.
4. They don’t like beer, pickups, country music or Jesus.
5. They are DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE for the death of Dale Earnhardt.
6. Their favorite movie is “BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.”

We expect the problem in Iraq to be over by Friday.

What We’ve Got Here… Is a Failure to Rally

The Cubes (NASDAQ: QQQQ): We actually have two rally failures in a row (today and yesterday). From oversold conditions. And today was an engulfing candlestick pattern. A failure to rally from oversold conditions and a bearish engulfing pattern such as we have hear is usually a sign of more selling to come. Cheers!


What’s It Look Like When Risk Premiums Re-“Emerge”?

Above: Picture from front page of Indian broker at midday, when the market was down 10% and halted. This guy is too young to remember the last time emerging markets had a crisis. Seems like he’s having to do some recalculations, after possibly believing that emerging market stocks can only go up (kind of like U.S. investors with housing prices, gold prices, commodities, and commodity stocks). This type of action comes from sentiment shifts brought about by drying liquidity and rising risk premiums. The down 10% in a day part is brought about by margin calls and people getting out at any price to make the pain stop. Russia’s RTS Index declined 9%, and the Turkish market fell 8%. See below for today’s WSJ article for more.


Article: Make Poetry, Not War

May 20, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist
Make Poetry, Not War
It was a rough crowd for agents of American imperialism.

At the New School commencement at Madison Square Garden’s theater yesterday afternoon, dozens of the red-and-black-gowned graduates and some faculty were heckling, cackling, hissing, booing, jeering, whooping, bolting, turning their backs and holding up orange signs that read, “Our commencement is not your platform.” As for John McCain, he spoke about how the “passion for self-expression sometimes overwhelms our civility.”

“We’re graduating, not voting,” one young man yelled.

“This is all about you,” another called out. “We don’t care.”


Article: Bush’s faith worries Albright

Bush’s faith worries Albright
Monday, May 22, 2006 Posted: 1518 GMT (2318 HKT)

LONDON, England (Reuters) — U.S. President George W. Bush has alienated Muslims around the world by using absolutist Christian rhetoric to discuss foreign policy issues, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright says.

“I worked for two presidents who were men of faith, and they did not make their religious views part of American policy,” she said, referring to Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both Democrats and Christians.

“President Bush’s certitude about what he believes in, and the division between good and evil, is, I think, different,” said Albright, who has just published a book on religion and world affairs. “The absolute truth is what makes Bush so worrying to some of us.”


Options Backdating – Corruption Still in the System

The option backdating story continues to grow. It is a story about corrupt multimillionaire criminals not being satisfied with their fat compensation packages and deciding to seal money from shareholders and other stakeholders.

These guys are the worst kind of criminals, harming the ones who have entrusted them with their lives (money represents life to the extent that it is earned in exchange for creativity and hard work). To me these kinds of people are only a notch above those who harm children. In both cases you have a person in a special position of trust, confidence, responsibility and duty, otherwise know as a fiduciary, betraying that trust and causing harm to the exact people they are supposed to be protecting. It is amazing. They should be fired, stripped of their gains and thrown into the SuperMax facility in Colorado. I am not kidding on this one, although I do think that SuperMax facility should be shut down or changed because in its current state it is a sad “tell” on America’s cultural and political trajectory. “Neo, you’ve been down that road and you know where it leads.”


100 Best Places to Live

I don’t know what the other 99 are, but one at the top of my list is Ennis, Montana. You can read about it on my new website Ennis is a great place to live in southwest Montana, near Yellowstone, Big Sky and Bozeman. Great climate, fly fishing, skiing, hiking, camping, horseback riding, floating, kayaking, and more. The retirees and new economy workers will keep coming for years. Cheers!